Brian Wang speaks with humanoid bot and AI expert Dr John Gibb about the surprises in a future where teslabots do everything in factories.
RethinkX projects a 20 year disruption of the global labor market by humanoid robots. RethinkX projects there will be about one billion humanoid robots by 2045-2055. However, this skips over the starting point of the Technological singularity when factories get nearly completely automated.
RethinkX projects humanoid robots will enter the market at a cost-capability of under $10/hour for their labor, on a trajectory to under $1/hour before 2035 and under $0.10/hour before 2045. They projected one billion bots by the 2040s.
I project that one million humanoid bots should be plenty to kickstart the exponential civilization. This means the massive disruption will be clear well before there are one billion bots. The bots need to be able operate and build factories and operate autonomous mining and construction machinery. They will operate factories but also build new factories. There can be unlimited production by constantly and rapidly doubling the number of bots, factories and mines.
We need to create a simplified supply chain of few minerals and metals for batteries and other components. Partial non-exponential aspects like needing humans to build and operate semiconductor chip fabs would not be that limiting on the other aspects that are exponential.
RethinkX says it is impossible to know in advance the full details of how the new labor system will differ from today, but the key feature is: the marginal cost of labor will rapidly approach zero.
Elon Musk described the thousand Starship fleets going to Mars every two years at a SpaceX presentation last month. The fleet can easily transport hundreds of thousands of humanoid robots and all of the factory machinery and mining machinery.
Having no zoning and no Not in my Backyard restrictions on Mars will allow unlimited replication of factories. Production of more rockets, factories and robots can then colonize and develop the entire solar system.
Nextbigfuture Described Truly Exponential Humanity Beyond the RethinkX Humanoid Robot Labor Forecast
RethinkX says it is impossible to know in advance the full details of how the new labor system will differ from today, but the key feature is: the marginal cost of labor will rapidly approach zero.
A million person city on Mars is what Elon Musk and SpaceX have described. They talk about it being sustainable. This means all of the mining and gigafactories need to be there. There must be a simplified human supply chain on Mars. This is the seed that is needed to replicate and build more and more Gigafactories for Starships, humanoid bots and machines.
Twenty-six doublings from the sustainable Mars City and Gigafactories is the 10 trillion bot colonization of the Solar System. This can be completed by 2100.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.